Dropout rates are deceiving. They fail to tell the entire story but they make great headlines for folks that don’t want to get too deep.
Here is the story from my last year as Superintendent of Schools when one of the state’s major newspapers was prattling on and on about dropout rates. At the commencement ceremony I gave the real story of our high school’s dropout story.
Here are the comments taken from my introduction at the high school commencement ceremony.
It has been popular in various media outlets to publish dropout rate statistics using exiting 8th graders or incoming 9th graders and projecting those numbers out to the senior year and claim that those not “graduating” are “dropouts.” Using this method our high school would have what looks like a 74 % graduation rate and/or a 26 % dropout rate. These methods ignore the complexity of modern circumstances.
Here are some statistics from this year’s senior class that refute some of the doom and gloom claims by the media.
In the spring of 2002 there were 275 students leaving 8th grade.
In the fall of 2002 there were 282 incoming freshman.
In the spring of 2006 there are 208 graduating seniors from that incoming class .
On the surface that looks like a 74 % graduation rate and/or a 26 % dropout rate.However, here is the rest of the story:
12 students received certificates of completion or attendance. 7 were students with diagnosed special learning needs and 5 were foreign exchange students
18 students are in still in the Alternative School working on the diploma track or working on a GED. They may graduate – just not in four years
6 have already earned a GED
4 are working on the GED somewhere else
1 student passed away
29 transferred to other schools
14 transferred into our high school and graduated on time this year
14 of the 208 graduating received their diploma through the alternative high school
0 Transferred to home school
1 was expelled and never returned
12 students left or disappeared and we withdrew them eventually without receiving a transfer request
5 dropped out (through the exit interview process)
If we consider the 12 who disappeared + 5 who dropped out + 1 who was expelled and never returned, that makes 18 students we know have left the system. Assuming they are all “dropouts” and that they have not continued school somewhere else, this would make the drop out rate 6%. If all of those in the alternative school dropped out too, then it could go up as high as 12% from this incoming group of freshman.
Assuming realistically that several of them will graduate, I would guess the true drop out rate is closer to 7 % or 8% not the 26% you will read in the newspaper.
The most amazing statistic is that 93% of the 208 students graduating were here for all 4 years.
And that folks is the rest of the story.
Tags: commencement · dropout rates · dropouts · graduation1 Comment
I understand the public’s fascination with drop out rates and I agree that they should be monitored. Dr. Stock’s statistics are truely remarkable and something that the public doesn’t understand and most media outlets don’t want to share.
I would also throw out that when schools/districts make graduation rate a priority it can have the unintended consequence of “damaging” the education of many of the students. My experience has been that schools will not remove/suspend/expel students for fear that the graduation rate will be affected. In keeping these students in classrooms, the teachers are having to contend with more disruptions which means less time in teaching and less time in learning.
I fear that we are graduating 80% of our students with a very mediocre education because we need to keep the graduation reate up.